Ag Market Commentary

Corn followed Friday’s drops by adding 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 cents more to the downside today. Traders responded to the weather forecasts showing more potential rains since Friday’s forecasts. NASS reported corn silking at 29% after the close, compared to the 5-yr average of 32%. NASS had 3% of corn in dough stage, which is even with the 5-yr average. Corn conditions were a 376 on the Brugler500 index, down by 5 points wk/wk. Just four states, (MN, MO, SD, and WI) saw condition improvements from Sunday to Sunday, 3 of which are the only states above 400 on the Brugler500. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report this morning showed 902,623 MT (35.5 mbu) on the week ending July 9. That was down 4.84 mbu wk/wk, but was 30.7% above the same week last year. China got 13.2% of the shipments, but Japan and Mexico were each over 200k MT as the top destinations. Using weekly data, the report has accumulated shipments at 1.385 bbu with 8 weeks remaining. The spot DDGS to soymeal ratio is 0.73 in China, compared to 0.42 stateside. ArcMercosul reported Brazilian second corn crop harvest is 34.9% of planted, compared to 49% at the same time last year.

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.34, down 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.28 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.36 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.47 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



At Monday’s closing bell, the front month soybeans showed loses of 12 to 15 1/2 cents. Despite the large drops, the new crop soy/corn ratio is at 2.601, up 0.17 from Friday. Soymeal traded $7.7 to $7.9/ton in the red. Bean oil futures closed the session with losses of 14 to 15 points. CME’s synthetic soybean crush spread (not tradeable) for September futures was a four year low (for the second month spread) at 61 1/2. The July spread was at 54. Soybeans blooming were 8% above normal, with 48% of the 2020/21 crop blooming as of July 12. NASS reported that 11% of beans were setting pods, which is 1ppt ahead of average. Bean conditions ratings were 68% good/ex, which is down 3 percentage points from last week. On the Brugler500, conditions were down 6 points to 373. In IL, IN, and IA beans were rated 359, 356, and 395 respectively, down 16 points wk/wk collectively. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 17.98 mbu of beans shipped on the week ending July 9. That was down 7% wk/wk and 43% below the same week last year. Of the week’s shipments, 5.9 mbu (33%) were destined for China. With 90,458 MT, Indonesia was the top non China destination. MYTD bean exports are at 1.391 bbu, that is below last year’s pace and is the lowest for week 45 since the 12/13 MY. Iran is tendering for 200k MT of soymeal.

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.76 1/2, down 15 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.74, down 13 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.71 1/2, down 14 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.75 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $284.60, down $7.90

Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $28.08, down $0.14

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After a down day in the grain markets, wheat futures also closed in the red. SRW futures were down the most on Monday, with losses of 4 to 11 cents. HRW futures were 3 to 6 3/4 cents in the red at the closing bell. MPLS spring wheat futures are down 6 1/2 to 7 cents so far. Winter wheat harvest is 68% complete nationally, but finished in AR, TX, and OK. KS wheat harvest still had 5% to go as of the 12th. The weekly update reported spring wheat was 80% headed, which is still 5 ppts behind average. SD spring wheat was 95% headed, compared to their average of 91%. Spring wheat conditions scored a 369 on the Brugler500 index, that was down 5 points wk/wk led by SD which dropped 18 points to 351. The weekly Export Inspections report showed wheat shipments at 624,211 MT, which is up 67% wk/wk and up 79% yr/yr. SRW wheat was the top shipped variety, with 44.9% of the total. China was the top destination for the week’s shipments with 18% of the total. China and Taiwan collectively accounted for 32.5% of the week’s wheat exports. IKAR lowered their most recent Russian wheat forecast to match USDA at 76.5 MMT. Egypt issued an international wheat tender for August delivery.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.24 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.49, down 3 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.18 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures closed mixed. The first three fat cattle futures were down 2 to 37 cents, but the first ’21 expiry contracts gained 10 to 17 cents. Feeder cattle futures closed with triple digit gains, save for Sept which was up 75 cents. The CME Feeder Cattle index for July 10 was $135.17, up by 25 cents. USDA’s ARS’s Cattle Heat Stress shows this week’s stress level in emergency from TX through northern MO. Most of NE and a bit of SD is also in the danger to emergency range. The forecast for the week through Saturday shows emergency stress levels for IA cattle as well. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Monday, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $11.38. Choice boxes were $1.24 lower, and Select boxes fell another $2.41. Choice ribs were quoted at $330.62, which is a $21.72 premium to Select ribs. Select briskets were a $4.18 premium to Choice, at $163.82 and $159.64 respectively. USDA estimated cattle slaughter for Monday at 118,000 head. That is up 3k head wk/wk but down from 120,000 head the same week last year.

Aug 20 Cattle closed at $99.650, down $0.350,

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $104.200, down $0.375,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $108.375, down $0.025,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.050, up $1.300

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.075, up $0.750

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.525, up $1.025

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures traded a dime to $1.40 higher on Monday. July hogs closed at $46.67 ahead of Wednesday’s expiration. The weekly Fresh Bacon Index from CME was up $3.98 to $123.87. The CME Lean Hog index for July 9 was back up 16 cents to $45.33. The National Average Base Hog price for July 13 was $30.45, up by 45 cents. The ECB regional base hog price was a $2.07 premium to WCB, after a 62 cent increase for the former and a 75 cent drop in the latter. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was down $1.43 in the afternoon report to $67.52. Rib cuts were down the most with a $6.59 drop to $111.88, and bellies were back below $100 at $99.57 cwt. Hams fell $12.60 cwt. from the AM quote to the afternoon. USDA estimated Monday’s FI hog slaughter at 454,000 head. That compares to 452k last week and 411k from the same week last year.

Aug 20 Hogs closed at $51.275, up $1.400,

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $50.350, up $0.500

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $51.875, up $0.100

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Monday trading pushed cotton futures 51 to 96 points lower. In the weekly Crop Progress report from NASS, 63% of cotton was squaring and 18% was setting bolls. National squaring is 1 ppt ahead of average, led by AZ which is 99% squared compared to their average of 87%. TX cotton is 4 ppts ahead of average at 58% squared. 2020/21 cotton setting bolls is 3 percentage points behind the 5-yr average of 21%. Cotton conditions were a 322 on the Brugler500 index, down a point week to week and down 18 points from initial. USDA reported the weekly average spot price at 59.91 cents/lb, which was 235 points higher. Last week’s sales on The Seam totaled 24,501 bales at a wtd average price of 57.39 cents/lb. The July 10 Cotlook A index was down by 45 points to 69.70 c/lb. The AWP for cotton for this week is 51.48 cents/lb., with a 0.52 cent LDP. ICE certified stocks are 38,138 bales.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 63.75, down 96 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 63.35, down 96 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 64.04, down 79 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 64.68, down 66 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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